Hello,
I noticed on this list no special reaction to the fact that IANA has only 7*/8 left after the allocations on Nov. 30th. So I thought I'd start a thread to share my thoughts on the fact that IPv4 is in reality _already_ exhausted at IANA.
If you read IANA policies, you know that among the 7 "/8" (some here will know a /8 as "class A" even though it's incorrect), 5 are reserved (1 per RIR) and will be allocated when they are the only ones left. That leaves IANA with only 2 "/8". But APNIC is _already_ entitled to get these addresses, as per IANA policy (they don't have enough left to hold 9 months at their average alloc rate). And when they will in reality request these addresses, it will trigger the allocation of the "last 5", and, well, the end.
The request from APNIC could come tomorrow, or next week, or in 3/4 months. They can do it whenever they want. It doesn't matter, the way the movie ends is already known : APNIC will get 3 more /8, our beloved RIPE will get 1 more, as well as ARIN, LACNIC, and AFRINIC.
If you have another understanding of the situation, please share, I didn't find a lot of real analysis on the current situation, mainly refs to potaroo, so I'd be happy to discuss.
Now if you have not thought yet about how your network will reach the networks that will be IPv6-only starting middle of next year, well ... I'm sure a lot of people on the list are ready to help :)
Guillaume